The 2010 economic forecast – partly sunny, cautiously optimistic!
BY PETER SCHOR
Showroom specialist
I am hoping that you read my November 2009 monthly column, “How are you doing in the current economy?” and my December 2009 column “Turning problems into opportunities.” I received a lot of e-mail wishes of sincere thanks and appreciation. I dug deep into my thoughts to give you tools to help navigate the current economy and to be more successful! Please pass these articles to everyone in your company; you will thank yourself. All you have to do is go on www. thewholesaler.com website and go into their “archives” section. You can click on “send to” and e-mail these articles a PDF attachment. Be the leader that you are!
This is a challenging time for economic forecasting. In the beginning of 2008, I remember many economists predicting only a mild slowdown. The wide-scale effect of the recession took many people by surprise. It seemed that whenever the worst was over during 2009, more unexpected bad news came along.
Given the dismal expectations at the start of the year, things have turned out better than the worst forecasts. This does not mean the economy is doing well. It just means that it could have been a lot worse. A good example is the optimistic news that the U.S. unemployment level only rose 0.5% in October 2009. Economists expected that unemployment would be a lot worse. Forecasting for 2010 is difficult given the mixed signals still coming from the economy.
The economy is being propped up by unprecedented government and monetary policy intervention. The large budget deficit (tax curs are due to expire; zero interest rates; quantitative easing; bailout of banks; and the weak dollar and currencies) has resulted in little room for financial expansion during 2010. Factually, the government may face the tricky task of reducing borrowing during this fragile economy. Some economists fear that if interest rates are increased too quickly, the economy could be plunged back into recession. Some “positive signs” are also potentially misleading.
One promising signal is that the house prices appear to be stabilizing – admittedly on extremely thin levels of mortgage approvals. But stability in house prices is an important consideration for American consumers nervous about spending. However, pricing stability could still prove to be short lived.
At the nahb Fall Construction Forecast Conference in Washington, D.C., last October, most people felt that it was safe to assume that the U.S. economy is now on the road to recovery. But the end of the recession, they said, doesn’t necessarily mean that the troubles in the housing market are over. Housing expects feel that single family home sales and production activity has stabilized and is heading for higher ground. They also indicated that the multi-family sector is trailing behind. The severity of the downturn from which the nation is now emerging has made it more difficult to know exactly what to expect in the period ahead.
As a result, housing could improve faster than generally expected, or it could hobble along without reaching healthy levels until far into 2011. What happens to housing pricing is crucial in determining the strength of industry performance, the analysts have said. While prices have shown signs of stabilizing in recent months, they could suffer a relapse in the face of rising unemployment, which in turn increases the number of homeowners who can no longer afford to make their mortgage payments.
As I said in the two previous articles, there are so many low-cost to no-cost things that you can do to find solutions in new niche areas and by staying very focused. I have heard in the last 90 days from industry leaders at various industry segments. These experts have indicated that it is a good time to go “Back to Basics” in fundamental business practices.
What are your written goals for the 2010 New Year?
In the beginning of my career in the plumbing/hvac wholesaler industry, I used to spend more time planning my two-week vacation than in forming my life goals. January is a great time to check in on your showroom and personal goals. You can’t hit the target if you can’t see it! Failing to plan is planning to fail! Remember goals must be: definite, achievable, believable, measurable, time limited, and short and long term. Please sit down and write your goals for your showroom and then write down the “resources” for each goal. I will tell you that scientifically and spiritually, once the goals are in writing, you will attract and “manifest” the things you need to do.
A good example of this philosophy is when you know what car you really want to buy – brand, model, color, features and so forth, you suddenly see this car on the freeway. Prior to this time, you never saw the car while driving. It is called The Law of Attraction and by having it written and then storing it in your brain (consciousness) it will appear. Dr. Wayne Dyer, who has many seminars on PBS TV and has written many books, has a best-selling book called, You will see it, when you believe it! If I can give you one profound TIP, I would advocate having your goals for 2010 in “writing.”
After you write out your goals for 2010, you check in each day and say to yourself, “What am I doing today to support my goals?” This way you can stay focused on achieving great things in 2010.
One last thing, there are plenty of opportunities for me to conduct a series of low-cost/high-value, 45-minute weekly or monthly, custom tailored showroom seminars for your employees. This can be accomplished in a simple “Teleclass Format”: telephone (my 800 line can bridge up to 1000 people), power point and a hand-out. I can take care of accountability testing too. For those who have internet capabilities, I can also produce a “webinar”.
Peter Schor, president of Dynamic Results Inc, is a bath/plumbing industry speaker, educator, author, columnist and consultant in the many segments of our industry. For the past 20 years, he conducted seminars and speaks at numerous conventions. Schor has great expertise in the field of showrooms and hotel bathrooms and has won many industry awards. He also consults manufacturers in taking their products to market in the areas of sales, marketing and public relations. Schor can be reached at 1302 Longhorn Lane, Lincoln, CA. 95648, phone 816/408-5346, fax: 916/408-5899. e-mail pschor@dynamicresultsinc.com or visit his web site: www.dynamicresultsonline.com.